Rinder must be counting "indies" in his guesstimate. I believe it was Mark Headley who tied the numbers down to eMeter sales and guesstimated at most 23-25,000 Scientologists who were "devout" enough to purchase the mandatory and grossly price-inflated eMeter.
Given that they also count anyone who darkens their door as a Scientologist, even if it was just a random passer-by taking one of their tests, we may never know exact numbers. As was said above, the number is definitely a moving target, and requires another question to be asked and answered first: What are the prerequisites for being a Scientologist?
If merely taking one of their tests or buying a book or attending a single lecture is the prerequisite, then their numbers will be grossly inflated (as we know they are). If it requires someone stating proudly that they are a Scientologist (and not "I'm not a Scientologist, but..." which amounts to the same thing, more often than not), then I'd be surprised if they could even scoop up the 23-25k Headley guesstimated, indies or otherwise.
So, part of the problem is defining what makes someone a Scientologist, perhaps by taking what the cult considers and what non-cult members consider, and finding some sort of happy medium in the middle. Good luck with that, as both definitions tend to vary widely, in my experience.
If we targeted those who made it past the "yep, we can haz Xenu, despite the lies we told you before" OT3 stage, and only counted those who are still active within the cult, what do you think the total number would be now?
Hi Lorelei! Good to catch you on a thread here
Of the many promo pieces I receive daily from scn centres around the world, there were 2 that made me chuckle and of the 2, one that might relate to the OTs over OT III numbers comment you made.
The OT Newsletter from Flag about their 45 day World Tour briefings on the "10,00 on or through Solo NOTS" Flag birthday (Dec 7th 2010 ) shows, and they brag about this, that from over 45 days beginning Aug 5th thru sept 18th, 2010, the reps traveled to 38 cities, went to 51 orgs (53 events total) raveling 22,000 miles across the world, briefed 4,000 members, of which 3000 were Clears and OTs, and had 60 clears or OTs arrived to date since (I received this yesterday, so give it 2 weeks into Oct) as a result of thie events and that 708 other 'clear or OT''s signed up stating that they would be arriving by end of the year to get onto services that include getting onto Solo NOTS.
Ok, so lets take a look at these numbers:
60 arrivals of 4000 attendeees = 0.015%
708 signups & 60 arrivals = 768 total interested in being 1 of the 10,000 Solo Nots arrivals by Flag B-day is 768 of 4000 = 0.192%
53 events total divided by total # of attendees 4000 shows an average of 74.1 people attending each
53 events with 3000 clear and OT attendees only = 56.6 average at each org/event.
Why do they send members this information when it's clear that the amount of clers and OTs worldwide are so few that on 3,000 bothered to be briefed?
Well, I suspect the joy FLAG is feeling is due to the amount of money they reg'd for the services, the # of completions, and the amount of well done auditing hours that will come of it - their main important statistics.
If 60 Clears and OTs arrived at flag because of this event, you can figure that the everage person shelled out a minimum of $ 50,000. That's $3,000,000. Given the amount that 768 people would bring in , at this average That's what they are so excited about.You're talking $37,900,000 !
But the low numbers of attendees and signups are the real clues. Scientology is dying and the number of members is low and even these are not jumping on the Flag bandwagon.
Last year it was 10,000 through Solo NOTS. This years is ON or Through Solo NOTS. Wonder what they are gonna call it when they don't make the 10,00 by Dec 7th?